Sea News – International Service Rising Container Ship Freight Rates Amid Capacity Shortages and Trade Tensions The latest data released by the Hamburg and Bremen Shipbrokers’ Association indicate that the New ConTex index continues its upward trend, with freight rates for container ships increasing across many capacity segments. This growth, which in some cases exceeds 100% compared to last year, is driven by multiple factors, including a shortage of medium and large vessels, geopolitical risks, and rising global trade costs.
Freight Rate Fluctuations Across Different Ship Sizes
An analysis of the New ConTex index as of February 27, 2025, reveals that six-month charter rates for 1,100 TEU and 1,700 TEU vessels have been recorded at $14,957 and $26,680, respectively. These figures represent a 67.5% and 126.2% increase compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, 4,250 TEU vessels with twelve-month contracts have also seen a significant rise, with their rates reaching $52,663, reflecting an annual growth of 111.4%.
However, this trend has not been uniform across all capacities. Some vessels, such as the 2,500 TEU class under 12-month contracts, have experienced a 1.1% decline in rates. Nevertheless, such minor decreases have not had a significant impact on the overall upward momentum of the market, which remains relatively strong.
Capacity Shortages: The Main Driver of Freight Rate Increases
One of the primary reasons behind the rising freight rates this year is the shortage of medium and large container vessels in the market. Data suggest that vessels above 2,500 TEU are facing severe supply constraints, with some new vessel deliveries being postponed until 2026.
This shortage comes amid strong demand for cargo transportation, particularly in Europe and North America. As a result, many shipping companies are increasingly opting for long-term charter agreements, as freight rates are expected to continue rising in the near future.
Geopolitical Risks and Their Impact on the Market
In addition to capacity shortages, international political and economic developments have also played a crucial role in the surge of freight rates. The United States government has threatened to impose new tariffs on China, Europe, Canada, and Mexico. Furthermore, increased port charges for vessels built in China—particularly the COSCO fleet—could lead to higher transportation costs and, consequently, rising freight rates.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions in key shipping routes, such as the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, have escalated insurance costs and operational risks for shipping lines. These factors, combined with vessel shortages, are pushing market expectations towards continued rate increases in the coming months.
Outlook for the Maritime Transport Market
Given current trends, container freight rates on major global trade routes are expected to remain high throughout the first half of 2025. While some analysts predict that the introduction of new vessels into the global fleet in 2026 may help alleviate the situation, in the short term, increasing demand and declining capacity in certain segments will remain the key drivers of rate growth.
In this environment, shipping industry stakeholders must adopt long-term strategies, flexible contract arrangements, and risk assessment mechanisms to prepare for market fluctuations. It appears that in 2025, the maritime transport sector will be more affected than ever by supply constraints, trade policies, and geopolitical developments.
Source: Hamburg and Bremen Shipbrokers’ Association Report – February 27, 2025
